Decision brief - 20 October 2026
Stay at 780 Upper Serangoon Road,
move to Paya Lebar Kovan CC, or move to Hougang?
All three side by side, from one model: the same children, the same costs, the same move-in date, checked 3, 5 and 6 years after the move.
PlayFacto @ Kovan Pte Ltd - Confidential - figures exclude GST and Little Forest costs
The short answer
Bid for Hougang, up to $8k a month. It is the only move that clearly pays for itself.
Feb 2030
Hougang at $8k: the $346k move is repaid, under 3 years after moving
+$748k
Hougang at $8k: ahead of staying by Mar 2033, 6 years after the move
$10k
the most we pay for Hougang: repaid Jul 2030, +$602k ahead by 2033
-$571k
the CC at $10 psf against staying by 2033. It only pays if it stops another PlayFACTO opening there
Staying is safe, but 780 USR is full at 96 children. The CC costs more rent than 780 and has no more room. Hougang costs about half the rent, fixed for 6 years, and has room for about 130 children. That lower rent and extra room are what pay back the move.
One model for all three options (slides 3-8): move in 1 Apr 2027, the same growth rule, the same costs. Central case: 1 in 20 families leave in a move to the CC, 1 in 10 in a move to Hougang. PFS only, ex GST.
The three options
Same children, same costs. What changes is the rent, the room and the move.
| Stay at 780 USR | Move to the CC | Move to Hougang | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Where | 780 Upper Serangoon Road, today's centre | Paya Lebar Kovan CC, level 3, next to today's centre | 154 Hougang St 11, about 1 km away, off the main road |
| Size | 2,296 sq ft | 2,296 sq ft (4 units joined) | 3,304 sq ft (44% more) |
| Room for | 96 children | 96 children (same as today) | about 130 children |
| Rent a month, all in | $19,950 from Feb 2027, $20,654 from Feb 2028 | $23,986 at a $10 psf bid | $9,354 at an $8k bid ($11,354 / $13,354 / $15,354 at $10k / $12k / $14k) |
| Rent later | +10% from Feb 2030 (our guess) | +10% every 3 years | Fixed for 6 years; first 2 months free |
| Lease | 3 years, to Jan 2030 | 3 + 3 years | 3 + 3 years, same rent |
| One-off cost | $4,440 (stamp duty, legal) | about $278k | about $346k |
| Families who leave at the move | none | 1 in 20 (it is next door) | 1 in 10 (harder to reach) |
Rent all in, ex GST: 780 renewal rent includes the tenant's contribution. CC = $10 psf bid + $0.39 psf service charge + own aircon upkeep. Hougang = bid + S&CC $704 + about $650 aircon and power.
Children: one rule for every site
The loss at the move is a one-off dip. After that, only Hougang has room to keep growing.
Step 1
Move in on 1 April 2027
Either move. 780 USR runs on a short extension until then.
Step 2
Some families leave at the move
CC: 1 in 20, as it is next door. Hougang: 1 in 10, as it is harder to reach. Staying: none.
Step 3
Then every site grows like Kovan
34 children join each January and about 3 in 4 stay each year, up to the room: 96 at 780 and the CC, about 130 at Hougang.
| Average children in the year | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stay at 780 USR | 65 | 79 | 85 | 85 | 85 | 85 | 85 |
| Move to the CC | 62 | 77 | 85 | 85 | 85 | 85 | 85 |
| Move to Hougang | 60 | 74 | 87 | 96 | 103 | 108 | 112 |
From 42 children in Sep 2026. "Full" means 96 each January; some leave through the year, so a full site averages about 85. This is the only growth rule in the deck.
Profit a month
Hougang makes the most each month. The CC makes less than staying.
| Average month | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stay at 780 USR | $3.1k | $8.1k | $11.1k | $10.3k | $11.3k | $12.5k |
| CC at $10 psf | -$3.0k | $3.5k | $7.8k | $7.2k | $7.7k | $8.9k |
| Hougang at $8k | $8.4k | $17.5k | $22.5k | $27.0k | $30.7k | $34.2k |
| Hougang at $10k | $6.8k | $15.5k | $20.5k | $25.0k | $28.7k | $32.2k |
| Hougang at $12k | $5.1k | $13.5k | $18.5k | $23.0k | $26.7k | $30.2k |
| Hougang at $14k | $3.4k | $11.5k | $16.5k | $21.0k | $24.7k | $28.2k |
Same for every option
- PFS only, ex GST, no Little Forest costs
- Same fees, staff, royalty, food and fixed costs (Jun-Sep 2026 actuals), +3% a year from 2028
- Franchise renewal $104k in Nov 2028
- Only the rent and the children differ
Profit after rent and running costs, before one-off costs. Each extra $2k of Hougang rent takes $2k a month off. 2027 includes the move: a month or two of paying two rents, and Hougang's 2 rent-free months. Stay dips in 2030 when its rent rises 10%.
How the move money comes back
Hougang at $8k repays the move in under 3 years. The CC never does.
| Option | One-off cost | Move repaid vs staying | After 3 years Mar 2030 | After 5 years Mar 2032 | After 6 years Mar 2033 | All money back |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stay at 780 USR | $4.4k | - | - | - | - | Sep 2034 |
| Hougang at $8k | $346k | Feb 2030 | +$24k | +$478k | +$748k | Jan 2032 |
| Hougang at $10k | $346k | Jul 2030 | -$51k | +$356k | +$602k | Apr 2032 |
| Hougang at $12k | $347k | Jan 2031 | -$125k | +$233k | +$455k | Aug 2032 |
| Hougang at $14k | $347k | Aug 2031 | -$199k | +$111k | +$309k | Jan 2033 |
| CC at $10 psf | $278k | Never | -$447k | -$533k | -$571k | Not by 2036 |
| CC at $8 psf, for reference | $277k | Never | -$277k | -$241k | -$219k | Sep 2035 |
Ahead (+) or behind (-) staying at 780 USR, after paying the one-off cost. "Move repaid" = the month the move has earned back its cost against staying and stays ahead. "All money back" = when the business has returned everything put in since 2023, $806k, plus the move. Deposits left out.
Money in the bank, Oct 2026 to Mar 2033
Only the Hougang lines climb back past staying
Every move dips first. A dot marks the month a Hougang line passes Stay: the move is repaid. The CC line never does.
-$400k
$0
+$400k
+$800k
+$1.2m
Move in
3 yrs
5 yrs
6 yrs
Jan 2027
Jan 2028
Jan 2029
Jan 2030
Jan 2031
Jan 2032
Jan 2033
$8k +$1.34m
$10k +$1.19m
$12k +$1.04m
$14k +$898k
Stay +$589k
CC $10 psf +$18k
Hougang at
Running total of profit after one-off costs, from Oct 2026, central case. The early-2027 drops are the move costs; the Nov 2028 drop is the $104k franchise renewal, paid in every option. Deposits left out.
If more families leave at the move
Even if 3 in 10 families leave, Hougang at up to $10k repays the move by mid-2031.
| Ahead or behind staying by Mar 2033 | No family leaves | 1 in 10 leave | 1 in 5 leave | 3 in 10 leave |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hougang at $8k | +$829k 3 yrs: +$76k repaid Oct 2029 | +$748k 3 yrs: +$24k repaid Feb 2030 | +$664k 3 yrs: -$36k repaid Jun 2030 | +$555k 3 yrs: -$108k repaid Nov 2030 |
| Hougang at $10k | +$683k 3 yrs: +$2k repaid Mar 2030 | +$602k 3 yrs: -$51k repaid Jul 2030 | +$517k 3 yrs: -$110k repaid Nov 2030 | +$409k 3 yrs: -$183k repaid May 2031 |
| Hougang at $12k | +$537k 3 yrs: -$72k repaid Sep 2030 | +$455k 3 yrs: -$125k repaid Jan 2031 | +$371k 3 yrs: -$185k repaid Jun 2031 | +$263k 3 yrs: -$257k repaid Jan 2032 |
| Hougang at $14k | +$390k 3 yrs: -$147k repaid Mar 2031 | +$309k 3 yrs: -$199k repaid Aug 2031 | +$225k 3 yrs: -$259k repaid Feb 2032 | +$116k 3 yrs: -$331k repaid Aug 2032 |
CC at $10 psf: behind staying in every case, -$544k to -$705k by Mar 2033, and never repaid.
Big figure: ahead or behind staying by Mar 2033. Small: vs staying by Mar 2030, and the month the move is repaid. Central case: 1 in 10 for Hougang, 1 in 20 for the CC.
If another PlayFACTO takes the CC
Then winning the CC pays, because it blocks the rival. Hougang at $8k still pays more.
What we assume (to check with Justin)
- We do not take the CC, and another PlayFACTO opens there from July 2027.
- It halves our January intake (34 to 17), and only about 2 in 3 children stay a year (64%, as in 2025).
- It hurts Hougang the same way as 780 USR.
- Staying with a rival: 63, 55, 49, 46 children in 2027-30, and losses from 2029.
Ahead or behind staying with a rival
| Option | 3 yrs | 5 yrs | 6 yrs | Repaid |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CC at $10 psf | -$156k | +$163k | +$362k | Apr 2031 |
| Hougang at $8k | -$3k | +$294k | +$453k | Apr 2030 |
| Hougang at $10k | -$78k | +$172k | +$307k | Nov 2030 |
| Hougang at $12k | -$152k | +$50k | +$161k | Oct 2031 |
| Hougang at $14k | -$226k | -$72k | +$14k | Feb 2033 |
So the question for Justin is plain: would HQ put another PlayFACTO at the CC if we do not take it? If HQ promises in writing that it will not, the CC is not worth $10 psf.
Each option is compared with staying while the rival operates. If we win the CC, there is no rival there. 3 / 5 / 6 years = Mar 2030 / Mar 2032 / Mar 2033.
What to bid for Hougang
Aim for $6-8k. Walk away above $8k. $10k is the absolute ceiling.
| Bid a month | Rent all in | Profit a month, 2028 | Move repaid | After 3 yrs | After 6 yrs | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stay at 780 USR | $20,654 | $8.1k | - | - | - | for comparison |
| Hougang at $8k | $9,354 | $17.5k | Feb 2030 | +$24k | +$748k | Walk-away point: repaid in under 3 years |
| Hougang at $10k | $11,354 | $15.5k | Jul 2030 | -$51k | +$602k | Absolute ceiling: repaid by mid-2030 |
| Hougang at $12k | $13,354 | $13.5k | Jan 2031 | -$125k | +$455k | 6-year bet |
| Hougang at $14k | $15,354 | $11.5k | Aug 2031 | -$199k | +$309k | 6-year bet; only +$14k if a rival opens at the CC |
Every $2k less rent is $2k a month more profit, about $146k over 6 years. $12-14k leave us $125k-$199k behind staying after 3 years, and only pay off if Hougang fills beyond 96 children (it reaches 96 in 2030 and about 112 by 2033).
Central case: 1 in 10 families leave at the move (more on slide 8). After 3 / 6 years = Mar 2030 / Mar 2033, against staying at 780 USR. Bids rise in steps of $50 to $1,000: agree the ceiling before Thursday and stop there.
Hougang: the unit
An HDB shop at 154 Hougang St 11, by open e-bid. The rent is locked for 6 years.
| Unit | #01-196, S530154 |
| Size | 3,304 sq ft (780 USR: 2,296) |
| Use | Student care or enrichment only |
| Starting bid | $2,200 a month, plus S&CC $704 |
| Term | 3 + 3 years, same rent both terms |
| Rent free | First 2 months |
| Bid deposit | $4,000 |
| Bidding closes | Thu 22 Oct 2026, 10:00am |
For it
Far cheaper rent, fixed to 2033. 44% more space: room for about 130 children. Closer to PLMGS (Primary). About 1 km from today's centre, so most families can follow.
Against it
Off the main road, few buses. A bare shop needing a full fit-out. Some families may leave in the move. It does not stop another PlayFACTO taking the CC.
Source: HDB Place2Lease listing 3792, read 20 Oct 2026. Use is restricted to student care or enrichment; no subletting or change of trade.
Bidding for both
Only bid for the CC as well if we would really run both
Pulling out is not just a $4,000 loss
If we win Hougang and then decline it, HDB keeps the $4,000 and its listing says the bidder "would be debarred" from HDB, Government and Statutory Board tenders for up to 5 years. PA is a statutory board. A ban would block future HDB shops, CC spaces and school-based student care tenders. Our bid stays binding for 6 months, to about April 2027.
| On 22 October, Hougang... | Then, by 27 October |
|---|---|
| We lose, or it goes above $8,000 | Bid for the CC at $10 psf as planned. If we lose that too, renew 780 USR. |
| We win at $8,000 or less | Do not bid for the CC, unless we want a second centre starting from zero children at about $24k rent. Ask HQ instead to promise in writing that no other PlayFACTO opens near Kovan. |
Source: listing 3792 condition 7; HDB eBidding T&Cs clauses 25-26. PA's own deposit and withdrawal terms are in its Form 2, which we have not seen: get it from Quinvest before 27 October.
How to bid on Place2Lease
Set up today; bidding closes Thursday 10am
| Step | |
|---|---|
| 1 | Today: get Justin's OK in writing (the franchise agreement needs HQ approval of any lease). |
| 2 | Today: the company's Corppass admin gives the bidder access to HDB's Place2Lease e-service under UEN 202344857N. |
| 3 | Open place2lease.hdb.gov.sg, find 154 Hougang St 11 #01-196, press Login to Bid and log in with Singpass for the company. |
| 4 | Accept the terms, pull company details from Myinfo, choose Student Care Centre, enter a bid ($2,200 or more), make the declaration. |
| 5 | Pay the $4,000 deposit by Visa or Mastercard before closing. If we lose, it is refunded to the card (can take a month). |
| 6 | Bids rise by $50 to $1,000. A bid in the last 10 minutes adds 10 minutes, again and again. Agree our ceiling first and stop there. |
| 7 | If we win: the SMS is provisional; the Letter of Acceptance is the award. Sign the tenancy by its deadline and pay 1 month's rent deposit, 1 month's S&CC, stamp duty and GST. JY signs as guarantor (a shareholder who is a citizen or PR). |
From HDB's eBidding T&Cs (Jun 2026) and the Place2Lease guides. HDB may ask for our layout plan and need not accept the highest bid. The fit-out needs a Qualified Person's plans for BCA and SCDF.
Our recommendation
Hougang first, the CC only if Hougang is lost, 780 USR as the fallback
| When | If | Then |
|---|---|---|
| Thu 22 Oct | We win Hougang at $8k or less | Take it. Do not bid for the CC unless we mean to run two centres. Ask HQ in writing for no other PlayFACTO near Kovan. |
| Thu 22 Oct | Hougang goes above $8k | Stop at $8k (never above $10k) and go on to the CC. |
| Tue 27 Oct | We are still bidding | Bid $10 psf for the CC. It is a long shot (Heartland Mall rents at $13-14 psf) and only pays if it blocks a rival. |
| If we win neither | Renew 780 USR for 3 years on the terms already agreed with Fort Aries. |
Before any move
HQ approval in writing (franchise clause 4.2), and a short extension at 780 USR to about April 2027.
Ask HQ for
A fresh franchise term on relocation (clause 4.10), which would save the $104k renewal due in Nov 2028.
Cash
About $351k-364k for Hougang at the low point (April 2027), $403k for the CC, before deposits.
Never plan to pull out of a winning Hougang bid: we lose the $4,000 deposit and risk a ban of up to 5 years from HDB, Government and statutory board tenders, PA included (slide 12).
Next seven days
Two bids in one week: Hougang first, then the CC
| When | Step |
|---|---|
| Done 7 Oct | Told Fort Aries the renewal awaits HQ approval under clause 4.2 |
| Today, 20 Oct | Justin's OK on Hougang in writing; Corppass access for the bidder; agree our ceiling ($8,000) |
| Thu 22 Oct, 10am | Hougang e-bid closes. Win at $8,000 or less: no CC bid. Lose: go on to the CC |
| By 26 Oct | Read PA's Form 2 (deposit, withdrawal); ask Fort Aries for a short extension to spring 2027 |
| Tue 27 Oct, 5pm | CC tender closes (hard copy, tender box), if we are still bidding |
| If we win either | Fit-out from about January, move in by April 2027; otherwise renew 780 USR |
Tender: PLKCC-0301020304-27102026, units #03-01 to #03-04, 215 Tampines Road. Agent: Desiree Chen, Quinvest Chambers.
What actually happened
Each January adds about 30 children; we then keep 65-80% of them through the year
January (new intake)
2024
2025
2026
10
Apr 2024
17
Jul 2024
17
Oct 2024
12
39
Jan 2025
36
Apr 2025
34
Jul 2025
33
Oct 2025
25
53
Jan 2026
45
Apr 2026
42
Jul 2026
42
0
20
40
60
Full-time children billed a school fee each month, from the PFS Kovan Accounts item reports (2024-2026), duplicate August 2026 block removed. Jan 2025: 29 new joined (12 to 39). Jan 2026: 30 new joined (25 to 53). Kept Jan to Dec 2025: 64%. Kept Jan to Sep 2026: 79%, flat since July.
Where the growth rule comes from
34 join each January and about 3 in 4 stay a year: a bit more intake than 2026, a bit less retention
| Joined in January | Still here a year later | |
|---|---|---|
| 2025, actual | 29 | 64% |
| 2026, actual (to September) | 30 | 79% after 9 months |
| Rule used for every option | 34 | 76% |
Supports faster growth
20 P1 deposits already paid for 2027, against 6 at this point last year. 2026 retention is 79% so far, up from 64%.
No graduations yet
Today's 42 are P1 25, P2 10, P3 5, P4 2. Nobody reaches P6 before 2028, so every child kept stays on the roll.
Points the other way
January intake has been flat at 29-30. Oct-Dec 2025 lost 8 children; if that repeats, 2026 ends near 34, not 40.
From the PFS Kovan Accounts item reports, 2024-2026. Deposits: 20 per the 6 Oct report; our item report shows 18 deposit invoices by October 2025 for the 2026 intake, not 6 - to confirm.
What moving costs
About $278k to move to the CC, $346k to move to Hougang
Move to the CC, $10 psf
| One-off item | Estimate |
|---|---|
| Renovation, design and build | $140,000 |
| Full aircon with fresh air (none today) | $40,000 |
| Design, QP/PE and PA submissions | $12,000 |
| Sprinklers, electrical, CCTV, signage | $18,500 |
| Moving and legal | $4,000 |
| HQ relocation and design fee | $15,000 |
| Stamp duty on the new lease | $3,300 |
| Reinstating 780 USR on exit | $45,000 |
| Total | about $278,000 |
Move to Hougang, $8k a month
| One-off item | Estimate |
|---|---|
| Fit-out of a bare shop: toilets, pantry, classrooms, power, aircon, design and QP, moving | $285,000 |
| HQ relocation and design fee | $15,000 |
| Stamp duty on the new lease | $1,200 |
| Reinstating 780 USR on exit | $45,000 |
| Total | about $346,000 |
Fit-out range $230k-340k. Staying costs $4,440 once (renewal stamp duty and legal).
Ex GST. CC estimate from 2023-24 fit-out actuals at 780 USR ($178,684 fixed fit-out). Deposits are left out because they come back: 780 USR returns $56k about a month after hand-back.
Risks
Every option carries risk, including staying
If we stay
- Full at 96: no room to grow.
- Rent after Jan 2030 unknown; we assume +10%.
- An en bloc sale can end the lease on 3 months' notice, reinstatement at our cost.
- Another PlayFACTO may open at the CC (slide 9).
If we move to the CC
- PA must allow student care and 7am opening (building hours 9am-10pm).
- $10 psf is unlikely to win; bidding higher makes the loss bigger.
- Same room as today, at higher rent.
- Two separate areas may need an extra staff member.
If we move to Hougang
- Off the main road: more families may leave (slide 8).
- Bare shop: fit-out could reach $340k.
- The upside past 96 children depends on demand.
- It does not stop a rival at the CC.
Both moves: Fort Aries must agree a short extension to about April 2027. Without it, holding over after 31 Jan 2027 costs double rent (clause 6.16).
Lease terms from the 780 USR renewal (collective sale clause 6.12, holding over clause 6.16), the PLKCC tender kit and HDB listing 3792.