Decision brief - updated 20 October 2026
Stay at 780 Upper Serangoon Road,
move to Paya Lebar Kovan CC, or Hougang?
New: the HDB shop at 154 Hougang St 11 (e-bid closes 22 Oct). Growth rebuilt from our actual enrolment since 2024.
PlayFacto @ Kovan Pte Ltd - Confidential - figures exclude GST and Little Forest costs
The short answer
Move. Not because the CC fills faster, but because staying leaves the CC open to another PlayFACTO.
~$273k
one-off cost of moving, including reinstating 780 USR
Jan 2030
move repaid, if staying means a rival PlayFACTO opens at the CC
1 in 4
moving is the better bet if the chance of that rival is more than about one in four
On Kovan's own 2026 growth, both sites fill by 2029, so moving is not about growing faster. It is about who gets the CC. If nobody else takes it, moving leaves us about $200k worse off by 2033 than staying. If another PlayFACTO takes it, moving leaves us about $700k better off than staying.
PFS Kovan only, excluding GST and Little Forest. CC rent $8.00 psf (HQ now expects a $10 bid). Rival case: slide 16. 20 Oct: Hougang at $8k rent (slides 3-7) beats both options by 2033 if nobody takes the CC; it is in every table from slide 12.
20 October update: a third option
An HDB shop at 154 Hougang St 11, by open e-bid. The rent is locked for 6 years.
| Unit | #01-196, S530154 |
| Size | 3,304 sq ft (780 USR: 2,296) |
| Use | Student care or enrichment only |
| Starting bid | $2,200 a month, plus S&CC $704 |
| Term | 3 + 3 years, same rent both terms |
| Rent free | First 2 months |
| Bid deposit | $4,000 |
| Bidding closes | Thu 22 Oct 2026, 10:00am |
For it
Far cheaper rent, fixed to 2033. 44% more space. Closer to PLMGS (Primary). About 1 km from today's centre, so most families can follow.
Against it
Off the main road, few buses. A bare shop needing a full fit-out. Some families may leave in the move. It does not stop another PlayFACTO taking the CC.
Source: HDB Place2Lease listing 3792, read 20 Oct 2026. Use is restricted to student care or enrichment; no subletting or change of trade.
Running costs if no child leaves
At $8k-14k rent, Hougang makes about $5-11k a month more than staying
| A month in 2028, 79 children | Stay, 780 USR | Hougang, $8k bid | Hougang, $12k bid | Hougang, $14k bid | CC at $10 psf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fees and other income | $76,000 | $76,000 | $76,000 | $76,000 | $76,000 |
| Staff (9 teachers) | $27,400 | $27,400 | $27,400 | $27,400 | $27,400 |
| Royalty, food, other running costs | $18,400 | $18,400 | $18,400 | $18,400 | $18,400 |
| Rent, all in | $20,650 | $9,350 | $13,350 | $15,350 | $23,990 |
| Profit a month | $9,500 | $20,800 | $16,800 | $14,800 | $6,200 |
| One-off cost to get there | none | about $346k | about $346k | about $346k | about $273k |
Hougang one-off: about $285k fit-out on a bare shop (range $230k-340k), plus $45k to hand back 780 USR and $15k HQ fees.
Children after the move: some families leave because of the location, then Hougang grows at Kovan's rate (34 join each January, 3 in 4 stay each year). Hougang has room for ~130 children; 780 is full at 96.
| Children, yearly average | 2027 | 2029 | 2031 | 2033 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stay, 780 USR | 65 | 85 | 85 | 85 |
| Hougang, none leave | 65 | 90 | 105 | 114 |
| Hougang, 1 in 10 leave | 60 | 87 | 103 | 112 |
| Hougang, 1 in 5 leave | 55 | 83 | 101 | 111 |
| Hougang, 3 in 10 leave | 51 | 79 | 99 | 110 |
Excluding GST. Hougang rent all in = bid + S&CC $704 + about $650 aircon and power. Deposits come back: 780 USR returns $56k; Hougang holds 1 month (3 without JY as guarantor). Every $2k more rent costs about $144k over the 6-year lease.
How high to bid
Aim for $6,000 or less. Walk away above $8,000.
| Better or worse off than staying, by Mar 2030 (3 years after moving) | No families leave | 1 in 10 leave | 1 in 5 leave | 3 in 10 leave |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hougang at $4,000 ($1.21 psf) | +$225k | +$172k | +$113k | +$40k |
| Hougang at $6,000 ($1.82 psf) | +$150k | +$98k | +$38k | -$34k |
| Hougang at $8,000 ($2.42 psf) | +$76k | +$24k | -$36k | -$108k |
| Hougang at $10,000 ($3.03 psf) | +$2k | -$51k | -$110k | -$183k |
| Hougang at $12,000 ($3.63 psf) | -$72k | -$125k | -$185k | -$257k |
| Hougang at $14,000 ($4.24 psf) | -$147k | -$199k | -$259k | -$331k |
| CC at $10 psf, for comparison | -$420k | -$269k even if the CC is full in 2 years | ||
Hougang keeps growing after the move (room for ~130 children, 780 is full at 96), so every row improves over the 6-year lease. By Jan 2033, with 1 in 10 families leaving: $8,000 is $690k ahead of staying, $10,000 $548k, $12,000 $406k, $14,000 $263k. But $14,000 is still $199k behind after 3 years, so $10,000 stays the absolute ceiling; above it is a 6-year bet only.
Base growth (34 join each January, 76% kept), Hougang capped at 130. Move-in 1 Apr 2027 for every option, 780 USR on a short extension until then. If fewer join each year because of the location (15% fewer from 2028), take about $1k a month off the ceiling.
Bidding for both
Only bid for the CC as well if we would really run both
Pulling out is not just a $4,000 loss
If we win Hougang and then decline it, HDB keeps the $4,000 and its listing says the bidder "would be debarred" from HDB, Government and Statutory Board tenders for up to 5 years. PA is a statutory board. A ban would block future HDB shops, CC spaces and school-based student care tenders. Our bid stays binding for 6 months, to about April 2027.
| On 22 October, Hougang... | Then, by 27 October |
|---|---|
| We lose, or it goes above $8,000 | Bid for the CC at $10 psf as planned. If we lose that too, renew 780 USR. |
| We win at $8,000 or less | Do not bid for the CC, unless we want a second centre starting from zero children at about $24k rent. Ask HQ instead to promise in writing that no other PlayFACTO opens near Kovan. |
Source: listing 3792 condition 7; HDB eBidding T&Cs clauses 25-26. PA's own deposit and withdrawal terms are in its Form 2, which we have not seen: get it from Quinvest before 27 October.
How to bid on Place2Lease
Set up today; bidding closes Thursday 10am
| Step | |
|---|---|
| 1 | Today: get Justin's OK in writing (the franchise agreement needs HQ approval of any lease). |
| 2 | Today: the company's Corppass admin gives the bidder access to HDB's Place2Lease e-service under UEN 202344857N. |
| 3 | Open place2lease.hdb.gov.sg, find 154 Hougang St 11 #01-196, press Login to Bid and log in with Singpass for the company. |
| 4 | Accept the terms, pull company details from Myinfo, choose Student Care Centre, enter a bid ($2,200 or more), make the declaration. |
| 5 | Pay the $4,000 deposit by Visa or Mastercard before closing. If we lose, it is refunded to the card (can take a month). |
| 6 | Bids rise by $50 to $1,000. A bid in the last 10 minutes adds 10 minutes, again and again. Agree our ceiling first and stop there. |
| 7 | If we win: the SMS is provisional; the Letter of Acceptance is the award. Sign the tenancy by its deadline and pay 1 month's rent deposit, 1 month's S&CC, stamp duty and GST. JY signs as guarantor (a shareholder who is a citizen or PR). |
From HDB's eBidding T&Cs (Jun 2026) and the Place2Lease guides. HDB may ask for our layout plan and need not accept the highest bid. The fit-out needs a Qualified Person's plans for BCA and SCDF.
What actually happened
Each January adds about 30 children; we then keep 65-80% of them through the year
January (new intake)
2024
2025
2026
10
Apr 2024
17
Jul 2024
17
Oct 2024
12
39
Jan 2025
36
Apr 2025
34
Jul 2025
33
Oct 2025
25
53
Jan 2026
45
Apr 2026
42
Jul 2026
42
0
20
40
60
Full-time children billed a school fee each month, from the PFS Kovan Accounts item reports (2024-2026), duplicate August 2026 block removed. Jan 2025: 29 new joined (12 to 39). Jan 2026: 30 new joined (25 to 53). Kept Jan to Dec 2025: 64%. Kept Jan to Sep 2026: 79%, flat since July.
What the history supports
Three growth paths from our own numbers; on the middle one, 780 USR is full by January 2029
| Growth path | Join each January | Still here a year later | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | Full (96) by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slow - 2025 repeats 2025's intake and drop-out, every year | 30 | 64% | 56 | 60 | 63 | 65 | never |
| Base - 2026 pattern, bigger intake used for every scenario that follows | 34 | 76% | 65 | 79 | 85 | 85 | Jan 2029 |
| Strong - deposits all join, fewer leave | 40 | 85% | 75 | 89 | 89 | 89 | Jan 2028 |
Supports faster growth
20 P1 deposits already paid for 2027, against 6 at this point last year. 2026 retention is 79% so far, up from 64%.
No graduations yet
Today's 42 are P1 25, P2 10, P3 5, P4 2. Nobody reaches P6 before 2028, so every child kept stays on the roll.
Points the other way
January intake has been flat at 29-30. Oct-Dec 2025 lost 8 children; if that repeats, 2026 ends near 34, not 40.
Average full-time children per year, from 42 in September 2026. Deposits: 20 per the 6 Oct report; our item report shows 18 deposit invoices by October 2025 for the 2026 intake, not 6 - to confirm.
What moving costs
About $273k, mostly fitting out a bare unit
| One-off item | Base estimate |
|---|---|
| Renovation, design and build | $140,000 |
| Full aircon system with fresh air (unit has none) | $40,000 |
| Design, QP/PE and PA submissions | $12,000 |
| Sprinklers, electrical, CCTV, signage | $18,500 |
| HQ relocation and design fee (to confirm) | $15,000 |
| Moving, legal and stamp duty, net | $2,200 |
| Reinstating 780 USR on exit | $45,000 |
| Total | about $273,000 |
Range
About $210k-370k, depending on the aircon, power supply and a water point.
Deposits
A new deposit of about $55k-58k (three months' rent at $8.00, possibly plus service charge - to confirm from the tender kit), offset by the $56k we get back from 780 USR.
Based on 2023-24 fit-out actuals at 780 USR ($178,684 fixed fit-out). Net line: moving $3k, legal $1k, new stamp duty $2.6k, less $4.4k of renewal stamp duty and legal avoided.
What it costs to run
At a tender rent of $7.50-8.00, the CC saves only $0.5k-2.4k a month
| Per month | Stay at 780 USR | CC at $7.50 psf | CC at $8.00 psf |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rent | $19.9k, then $20.7k | $17.2k | $18.4k |
| Service charge and own aircon upkeep | included | $1.0k | $1.0k |
| Total premises cost | $19.9k-20.7k | $18.2k | $19.4k |
| Children needed to cover all costs (break even) | 52-53 | 49 | 51 |
The rent saving alone will never repay a $273k move. If moving is worth it, it is because of the children: not losing them to a rival at the CC, or filling faster there.
CC unit: #03-01 to #03-04, 2,296 sq ft, service charge $0.39 psf. 780 USR renewal rents include the tenant's contribution. Both rents assumed to rise 10% at each 3-year renewal.
The scenarios
Six futures: two if we stay, three if we take the CC, one if we go to Hougang
| Average children per year | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stay, nobody takes the CC base growth | 65 | 79 | 85 | 85 |
| Stay, another PlayFACTO opens at the CC base growth until mid-2027, then January intake halves and more families leave | 63 | 55 | 49 | 46 |
| Move to the CC, base growth the CC grows exactly as Kovan does today | 65 | 79 | 85 | 85 |
| Move to the CC, full in 2 years 96 children by January 2029 (HQ's view) | 78 | 92 | 96 | 96 |
| Move to the CC, full in 1 year 96 children by January 2028 | 84 | 96 | 96 | 96 |
| Move to Hougang, 1 in 10 families leave base growth after the April 2027 move, room for ~130; same at every rent | 60 | 74 | 87 | 96 |
Base growth: 34 join each January, 76% kept over a year, from 42 children in September 2026. No families are assumed lost in a CC move; Hougang assumes 1 in 10 leave at the move. Full = 96 children, today's capacity; we assume the CC holds the same (to confirm with the fit-out plan). Hougang (3,304 sq ft) holds about 130.
Profit and payback: CC at $8.00 psf, Hougang at $8k, $12k or $14k a month
Whether a move pays back depends on what staying would look like
| Profit per month | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | Move repaid by vs staying, if nobody takes the CC | Move repaid by vs staying, if a rival PlayFACTO is at the CC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stay, nobody takes the CC | +$3.1k | +$8.1k | +$11.1k | n/a | n/a |
| Stay, other PlayFACTO at CC | +$2.9k | +$0.4k | -$1.8k | n/a | n/a |
| Move to the CC, base growth | +$2.0k | +$9.3k | +$12.4k | Never (not by 2033) | Jan 2030 |
| Move to the CC, full in 2 years | +$6.7k | +$14.1k | +$17.3k | Feb 2031 | May 2029 |
| Move to the CC, full in 1 year | +$8.7k | +$16.1k | +$17.3k | Aug 2030 | Feb 2029 |
| Move to Hougang $8k, 1 in 10 leave | +$8.4k | +$17.5k | +$22.5k | Feb 2030 | Apr 2030 |
| Move to Hougang $12k, 1 in 10 leave | +$5.1k | +$13.5k | +$18.5k | Jan 2031 | Oct 2031 |
| Move to Hougang $14k, 1 in 10 leave | +$3.4k | +$11.5k | +$16.5k | Aug 2031 | Feb 2033 |
"Move repaid by" = the month when moving has earned back its one-off cost ($273k for the CC, $345k for Hougang) compared with staying in that world. CC rows: the rival is who would have taken the CC had we stayed. Hougang rows: the rival really opens at the CC and hurts Hougang as much as 780 USR; 1 in 10 families leave at the April 2027 move, then Hougang grows to about 112 by 2033 (room for ~130). All paths pay the $104k franchise renewal in Nov 2028.
Money in the bank, Oct 2026 to Jan 2033: all three sites, in both worlds
Hougang at $8k wins if nobody else takes the CC; the CC itself wins if another PlayFACTO would
Move to the CC at $8 psf
Stay at 780 USR
Hougang at $8k a month
Hougang at $14k a month (dashed)
+$1.4m
+$1.4m
+$1.2m
+$1.2m
+$1.0m
+$1.0m
+$800k
+$800k
+$600k
+$600k
+$400k
+$400k
+$200k
+$200k
$0
$0
-$200k
-$200k
-$400k
-$400k
2027
2029
2031
2033
2027
2029
2031
2033
If no other PlayFACTO opens at the CC
The CC stays empty or goes to a non-competing business.
If another PlayFACTO opens at the CC
If we stay or go to Hougang; not if we take the CC ourselves.
Hougang $8k ends highest, +$1.25m
Move to the CC ends highest, +$368k
$8k +$1.25m
$14k +$824k
Stay +$570k
Move +$368k
Move +$368k
$8k +$87k
Stay -$326k
$14k -$340k
Jan 2030: Move overtakes Stay
Each line is the running total of profit minus one-off costs since October 2026, on base growth; deposits are left out. CC at $8.00 psf, no families lost. Hougang: 1 in 10 families leave at the April 2027 move; the early-2027 dips are the one-offs, $273k for the CC and $345k for Hougang. Every path pays the $104k franchise renewal in November 2028. In the right picture the rival hurts 780 USR and Hougang alike; only the CC line is the same in both.
Our overall return: when we get back everything we have put in
Hougang at $8k gets all our money back soonest, Jan 2032; the CC on base growth is a year later than staying
| Scenario | Most money in, at the low point | All money back by | With a fresh franchise term | Years from now |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stay, nobody takes the CC | $834k | Sep 2034 | n/a | 7.9 |
| Stay, other PlayFACTO at CC | $1.6m, still rising | Never | n/a | - |
| Move to the CC, base growth | $1.11m | Aug 2035 | Feb 2035 | 8.8 |
| Move to the CC, full in 2 years | $1.11m | Jun 2033 | Dec 2032 | 6.7 |
| Move to the CC, full in 1 year | $1.11m | Mar 2033 | Oct 2032 | 6.4 |
| Move to the CC, slow growth (2025 pattern) | $1.19m | Not by 2036 | Not by 2036 | - |
| Move to Hougang $8k, 1 in 10 leave | $1.16m | Jan 2032 | Sep 2031 | 5.3 |
| Move to Hougang $12k, 1 in 10 leave | $1.17m | Aug 2032 | Apr 2032 | 5.8 |
| Move to Hougang $14k, 1 in 10 leave | $1.17m | Jan 2033 | Sep 2032 | 6.3 |
"Money in" counts the $806k already spent (set-up $422k plus losses to Sep 2026 $385k) and every gain or cost after it; CC at $8.00 psf, Hougang at the rent shown with 1 in 10 families leaving, no rival at the CC, Hougang growing to about 112 children by 2033. Every Hougang row beats staying. It leaves out interest on JY's personal loans and what the business could be sold for. The model runs to Dec 2036.
The cost of staying
If we stay and another PlayFACTO opens at the CC, Kovan shrinks to about 45 children
What we assume (to confirm with Justin)
- HQ wants brand presence; if we pass, the CC is tendered to another PlayFACTO franchisee and opens by mid-2027.
- Same brand and fees, beside Kovan MRT, newer and larger - it takes half of our January intake from 2028 (34 to 17).
- Some families switch: children kept over a year falls back to 64%, the 2025 level.
- Result: 63 - 55 - 49 - 46 children in 2027-30, losses from 2029, about $900k worse by 2033 than if nobody had taken the CC (and about $700k worse than if we had moved).
How bad must the rival be for moving to pay?
| January intake lost | 76% kept a year | 70% kept a year | 64% kept a year |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30% | 78 children Sep 2034 | 67 children Apr 2031 | 57 children Jul 2030 |
| 50% | 64 children Feb 2031 | 54 children May 2030 | 46 children Jan 2030 |
| 70% | 50 children Apr 2030 | 41 children Nov 2029 | 34 children Aug 2029 |
Each cell: how many children Kovan would average in 2030 if we stayed, and the month by which moving (base growth, $8.00) would have repaid itself compared with that.
Moving pays back before mid-2031 in 8 of the 9 cases. Only a mild rival - we lose under a third of our intake and keep 2026 retention - leaves staying better. Timing and whether HQ would place another franchisee at the CC are assumptions; ask Justin directly.
What has to be true
Moving wins if a rival is likely; staying wins if HQ rules one out
Moving wins if
- Justin confirms the CC goes to PlayFACTO either way - us or another franchisee (we put the odds above 1 in 4).
- The winning bid is at or below $8.00 psf; up to $10.00 it still repays against a rival, but a year later.
- Fit-out stays near $273k; each extra $50k adds about 3 months to payback.
- We can fund about $360k by February 2027 (about $300k from March, when the 780 USR deposit returns).
Staying wins if
- HQ commits in writing that no other PlayFACTO opens in the Kovan catchment during our lease.
- Or the rival would be mild: under a third of our intake lost and retention unchanged.
- Or October-December 2026 repeats 2025's drop (ending near 34 children, not 40): growth is then slow, neither site fills, and the $273k is better kept.
- Or the cash cannot be raised without putting the business at risk.
Odds: moving is $200k behind by 2033 if there is no rival, $700k ahead if there is; the break-even chance is about 22%. Even on slow growth, the move repays against a rival, but only by September 2031.
Risks
Both options carry risk
If we stay
- Rent after January 2030 is unknown; we assume +10%.
- An en bloc sale lets the landlord end the lease on 3 months' notice, with reinstatement at our cost.
- A new owner may raise the rent further.
- HQ may let another franchisee open a PlayFACTO at the CC, beside Kovan MRT (slide 16).
- Franchise renewal of about $104k in November 2028.
If we move
- The People's Association (PA) must confirm student care is allowed, and 7am opening (building hours are 9am-10pm).
- Rent is set by the tender; $7.50-8.00 is HQ's estimate.
- Fit-out must finish before our lease ends on 31 January 2027, or we pay double rent.
- Growth is not guaranteed by the address: we start with the same 42 children, and the fast cases are HQ's claim, not ours.
- Two separate areas may need an extra staff member.
Lease terms from the 780 USR renewal (collective sale clause 6.12, holding-over clause 6.16) and the PLKCC tender kit PLKCC-0301020304-27102026.
Our recommendation
Bid for the CC, if these five things hold
| Condition | Who confirms | |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Student care and 7am opening allowed in writing | PA, via the tender agent |
| 2 | HQ would place a PlayFACTO at the CC whether or not we bid | Justin, plainly |
| 3 | A winning bid at or below $8.00 psf | Justin's tender advice |
| 4 | A fresh franchise term on relocation, and a capped design fee | Justin, under clause 4.10 |
| 5 | About $360k of cash available by February 2027 | Us |
If HQ will instead promise in writing that no other PlayFACTO opens near Kovan, renew at 780 USR: on our 2026 growth it fills by January 2029 without spending $273k.
If conditions 1, 3 or 5 fail, renew at 780 USR for three years and keep looking for a lower-rent site for 2030. Condition 2 is the one that decides between the two good outcomes. 20 Oct: if we win Hougang at $8,000 or less on Thursday, take it and do not bid for the CC (slides 5-6).
Next seven days
Two bids in one week: Hougang first, then the CC
| When | Step |
|---|---|
| Done 7 Oct | Told Fort Aries the renewal awaits HQ approval under clause 4.2 |
| Today, 20 Oct | Justin's OK on Hougang in writing; Corppass access for the bidder; agree our ceiling ($8,000) |
| Thu 22 Oct, 10am | Hougang e-bid closes. Win at $8,000 or less: no CC bid. Lose: go on to the CC |
| By 26 Oct | Read PA's Form 2 (deposit, withdrawal); ask Fort Aries for a short extension to spring 2027 |
| Tue 27 Oct, 5pm | CC tender closes (hard copy, tender box), if we are still bidding |
| If we win either | Fit-out from about January, move in by April 2027; otherwise renew 780 USR |
Tender: PLKCC-0301020304-27102026, units #03-01 to #03-04, 215 Tampines Road. Agent: Desiree Chen, Quinvest Chambers.